TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an English Premier League soccer match between Sunderland and Brighton, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates four distinct outcome scenarios for the Sunderland vs Brighton EPL match scheduled for October 10, 2026. All resolutions are based exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. If Sunderland wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Sunderland wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Brighton wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Brighton wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Only one of these markets can resolve to Yes, depending on the exact goal differential, while all others resolve to No. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks frequently set initial lines to attract action on both sides, whereas this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth – the volume of buy and sell orders at various price points – indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders. A higher volume generally suggests greater confidence in the current price.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread – the difference in goals scored by Sunderland and Brighton – will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing football authorities. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The verified result will be the definitive factor in determining the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 10, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either Sunderland or Brighton would likely cause significant movement, as would any changes in team form or tactical approaches. Unexpected news regarding team morale or managerial decisions could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant weather forecasts predicting adverse conditions on match day might also shift the odds. Publicly released team lineups closer to the game will provide more clarity and could trigger further price adjustments in this market.