TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 4:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates different margin-based outcomes for an upcoming Bundesliga soccer match between Stuttgart and M'gladbach. Each market focuses on specific goal-differential thresholds that determine a resolution, reflecting various levels of victory for either team within the standard match timeframe.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential of the Stuttgart vs M'gladbach professional Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for October 23, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Stuttgart wins by more than 2.5 goals or by more than 1.5 goals, or if M'gladbach wins by more than 1.5 goals or by more than 2.5 goals. All markets are independent assessments of victory margins and are not endorsed or affiliated with the governing league or its associated entities. Trademarks and brand names remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows traders to express their own beliefs, leading to odds that may diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information faster than traditional sportsbooks, especially regarding impactful but less quantifiable factors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on these actions. The more traders believe an outcome will happen, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Stuttgart vs M´gladbach match as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the final result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Stuttgart or M´gladbach team would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather forecasts predicting adverse conditions could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news related to team morale or internal conflicts could also shift sentiment. As the match date approaches, any updates on starting lineups or pre-game analysis from reputable sources will likely be closely watched by traders.