TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 2:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Europa League soccer match between Sturm Graz and Marseille, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Different thresholds for goal differentials define various possible resolutions.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Sturm Graz or Marseille wins the match, with specific thresholds defined for each potential outcome. If Sturm Graz wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Sturm Graz wins by more than 1.5 goals, that corresponding market resolves positively. The same structure applies to Marseille, with separate markets for wins by more than 1.5 goals and more than 2.5 goals. All outcomes are determined solely by the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. The event explicitly states that the platform is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks due to the differing incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that attract balanced betting, ensuring profit regardless of the outcome, while prediction market traders are incentivized to express their true beliefs about the likelihood of each result. This can lead to prediction markets reflecting a more accurate aggregate forecast, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbooks may offer different types of wagers not available in this market, and their odds can be influenced by promotional offers or public biases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price movements are driven entirely by supply and demand from traders on Kalshi, reflecting their individual and collective forecasts for the Sturm Graz vs Marseille match. The current market price indicates the implied probability of a specific outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Sturm Graz vs Marseille match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The final score and any relevant match statistics will be used to verify the outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct result will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. The precise details of the outcome will be publicly available following the match's conclusion.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Sturm Graz or Marseille would likely impact the odds. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to the match schedule or venue could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in other sources like sports news and analysis, can also contribute to movements in this market as traders react to new information.