TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Stoke and Middlesbrough, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. These thresholds vary depending on which team wins and by how many goals they win by.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Stoke or Middlesbrough wins the match, observed after 90 minutes plus stoppage time—excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds define resolution: Stoke winning by more than 2.5 goals, Stoke winning by more than 1.5 goals, Middlesbrough winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Middlesbrough winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any of these conditions met results in a resolution to 'Yes' for the corresponding market. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As a result, you may find that this market incorporates information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional oddsmakers. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on team form, injuries, or even external factors influencing the game. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Stoke vs Middlesbrough match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ predictions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market reflects the collective intelligence of those participating, constantly updating as new information becomes available. The current price indicates the probability, as perceived by traders, of a particular spread occurring.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Stoke vs Middlesbrough match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final price of the contracts they held. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final result as that will determine the settlement of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Stoke or Middlesbrough would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even unexpected weather conditions on match day could all influence trader sentiment. Significant public discussion or analysis shifting expectations about the match outcome could also move the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.