TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 1:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Stockport and Wimbledon, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by regular time scoring, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Stockport or Wimbledon wins the match scheduled for October 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Stockport winning by more than 2.5 goals, Stockport winning by more than 1.5 goals, Wimbledon winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Wimbledon winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The resolution exclusively considers regular time scores; extra time and penalty shootout results are disregarded. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information and insights differing from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome in the Stockport vs Wimbledon match, they can express that belief by trading on Kalshi, potentially driving the price away from the sportsbook’s initial offering. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, as the market incorporates a wider range of perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Stockport vs Wimbledon match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. The spread reflects the collective assessment of the potential goal difference, and the market’s efficiency is driven by the active participation of informed traders.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final score of the Stockport vs Wimbledon match and the resulting goal difference. The market will determine whether Wimbledon wins by more than 1.5 goals, as defined by the market contract. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Stockport or Wimbledon would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could signal a shift in expectations, potentially driving the market in a particular direction as people react to new information regarding the Stockport vs Wimbledon match.