TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.8b

24H VOL:

$74,316,137

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,155,356,965

338,521

Markets across

33,297

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,228

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stays with Golden State or Retires

95%
Yes 96¢No
N/A
$1,361,655
2%
14%
$905,565
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Boston

2%
Yes No 99¢
N/A
$1,265,331
0.6%
5%
$680,782
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Miami

2%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$691,432
2%
16%
$566,273
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Charlotte

2%
1%
Yes No 99¢
N/A
$672,125
0.87%
41%
$601,476
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

San Antonio

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$765,633
8%
9%
$499,550
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Philadelphia

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$274,087
0.22%
3%
$271,913
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Toronto

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$269,099
0%
52%
$268,879
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Cleveland

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$239,411
0%
0.91%
$239,411
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Houston

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$38,481
0.01%
76%
$38,481
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Denver

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$31,476
0%
0%
$31,476
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Los Angeles L

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$30,957
0%
0%
$30,957
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Dallas

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$26,407
0%
174%
$26,407
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Minnesota

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$20,530
0%
0%
$20,530
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Oklahoma City

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$18,072
0%
1%
$18,072
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

New York

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$14,899
0%
0%
$14,899
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Phoenix

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$12,758
0%
8%
$12,758
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Orlando

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$11,883
0%
0%
$11,883
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Atlanta

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$9,040
0.11%
44%
$9,040
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Brooklyn

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$7,720
0%
17%
$7,592
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Indiana

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$5,319
0%
0%
$5,319
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Washington

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$5,025
0%
0%
$4,825
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Portland

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$4,732
0%
0%
$4,732
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Detroit

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$2,906
0%
0%
$2,906
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Chicago

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$2,483
0%
2%
$2,483
1mo 3w 4d
active
kalshi

Utah

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$1,337
0%
0%
$1,337
1mo 3w 4d
active
Total markets: 25 of 30

Intro

This market tracks whether Steph Curry will change teams or retire before October 21, 2026, on Kalshi, resolving based on team status by that date. The current probability of Curry staying with the Golden State Warriors or retiring is 95.0%, with an alternative outcome at 4.0%. Watch for any official announcements or contract developments leading up to the October 21, 2026 deadline.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome occurs first: Steph Curry signs with or is traded to any of the specified NBA teams, or he stays with the Golden State Warriors or retires, all before October 21, 2026. Each outcome is mutually exclusive—only one can resolve to Yes. The resolution is based on official NBA roster transactions and announcements.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect a different participant base and incentive structure. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from traders risking real capital. Prediction markets may react faster to breaking news or roster changes, whereas sportsbooks adjust more cautiously to manage exposure. Comparing Kalshi odds to major sportsbooks can reveal whether the market is pricing Curry's next destination more bullishly or bearishly than Vegas, signaling where informed traders see edge.

On Kalshi, Steph Curry's Next Team is priced as a set of binary contracts, each representing a specific team outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that team being Curry's next destination. The leading outcome currently trades near 95.0% implied probability. Prices update continuously as new trades execute, and the contract that resolves to YES at settlement determines the winner. Kalshi's order-book model allows traders to set limit orders and capture spreads between bid and ask prices.

The Steph Curry's Next Team market resolves on Oct 21, 2026. Resolution is determined by official confirmation of which team Curry signs with or is traded to, based on credible sports news sources and league announcements. The contract corresponding to his actual next team will resolve to YES, while all other team outcomes resolve to NO. Traders should monitor official NBA communications, team announcements, and Curry's own statements leading up to the deadline. Early resolution may occur if a trade or signing is finalized before the end date.

Key catalysts include official statements from Curry, the Golden State Warriors, or rival teams regarding his future; trade rumors reported by credible NBA insiders; changes in team rosters or coaching staff that affect destination appeal; playoff performance that influences free agency interest; and salary cap developments that determine which teams can afford him. Contract extension announcements, front-office leadership changes, or unexpected injuries to Curry or other star players could also shift market expectations. Major roster moves by competing teams and shifts in championship odds will likely drive repricing on Kalshi as traders reassess Curry's most probable landing spot.