TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.3b
24H VOL:
$239,480,771
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,753,729
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,119,973,071
828,371
Markets across
14,993
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
947
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open Men's Singles?
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Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 58¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% High Projected APY: 2,648% 60 days to resolutionTrade on Polymarket
At 53¢ buys you 189 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $189 | Net Profit: $89 Multiplier: 1.89x | ROI: 89% High Projected APY: 4,977% 58 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks who will win the 2026 US Open Men's Singles tournament. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Jannik Sinner to claim the title stands at 57.0%, with Cameron Norrie at 19.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official USTA records and usopen.org announcement of the tournament winner. Watch the tournament window from August 23 through September 13, 2026, when the field will compete for the championship.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve on the same factual outcome: the official winner of the 2026 US Open Men's Singles tournament, with identical treatment of cancellation, postponement, and ineligibility scenarios.Primary resolution logic: Official U.S. Open website (usopen.org) and USTA tournament records; consensus of credible sports media reporting accepted as secondary source.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the specified player wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles tournament
- Market resolves NO if the specified player is eliminated from the tournament or becomes ineligible per USTA/tournament rules
- Market resolves OTHER (Polymarket) or No Contest (Kalshi) if the tournament is cancelled entirely
- Market resolves OTHER (Polymarket) or No Contest (Kalshi) if the tournament is postponed to after October 31, 2026
- Market resolves OTHER (Polymarket) or No Contest (Kalshi) if no winner is declared by October 31, 2026
- Polymarket includes an explicit 'Other' market option (Question 44) for any winner not listed among the 49 named players
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Player Ineligibility: If a listed player becomes ineligible per tournament rules (e.g., injury withdrawal, suspension, age/ranking disqualification), their market resolves NO. The tournament proceeds normally and another player wins.
- Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 US Open is cancelled entirely (e.g., force majeure, pandemic), all individual player markets resolve to OTHER (Polymarket) or No Contest (Kalshi). The Polymarket 'Other' catch-all market would also resolve YES in this scenario.
- Postponement Beyond Deadline: If the tournament is postponed and rescheduled to after October 31, 2026, all markets resolve to OTHER/No Contest regardless of eventual winner.
- Unlisted Player Victory: If a player not named in either platform's markets wins the tournament, Polymarket's 'Other' market (Question 44) resolves YES, and all named-player markets resolve NO. Kalshi has no catch-all and would require platform discretion.
- Tie or Shared Title: US Open format does not permit ties in Men's Singles; one player must be declared champion. If unprecedented circumstances create ambiguity, official USTA declaration governs.
Polymarket
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament winner is determined by the player who wins the championship. If a participant forfeits, withdraws from consideration, or takes any official action that removes them from being able to win the tournament, the market resolves to No for that participant. Only the player who completes the tournament and wins the final match can resolve the market to Yes.
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