TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.8b

24H VOL:

$81,408,110

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,158,719,757

338,335

Markets across

33,183

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,218

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Sports
limitless
polymarket
kalshi
predict

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Total volume:
$20,255,303
Volume 24h:
$940,306
29%
Liquidity:
$2,145,974
13%
Open interest:
$7,045,417
4%

Carlos Alcaraz

all

4 markets

Limitless

27.6%

Polymarket

28%

Predict

27.9%

Kalshi

26%

consensus

27.4%

+9.9%

spread

26-28%

(2pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$1.1m

·

Resolves Sep 14, 2026

Time left: 16d:19h:04m

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz

28%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 29.2¢ buys you 342 shares | Odds: 28% Total Payout: $342 | Net Profit: $242 Multiplier: 3.42x | ROI: 242% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 28¢ buys you 357 shares | Odds: 28% Total Payout: $357 | Net Profit: $257 Multiplier: 3.57x | ROI: 257% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 27.9¢ buys you 358 shares | Odds: 28% Total Payout: $358 | Net Profit: $258 Multiplier: 3.58x | ROI: 258% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 26¢ buys you 385 shares | Odds: 26% Total Payout: $385 | Net Profit: $285 Multiplier: 3.85x | ROI: 285% APY not meaningful 18 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 89

Description

This group of markets predicts the winner of the 2026 Men's US Open tennis tournament. Markets span multiple platforms and cover numerous professional tennis players, with a common resolution condition tied to the official tournament outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same core resolution logic: the winner of the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament, with consistent handling of cancellations and impossibility scenarios.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); credible reporting may be used as a consensus backup.

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the player who wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
  • If the tournament is canceled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or no winner is declared, the market resolves to "Other" or "No".
  • If a listed player becomes impossible to win due to tournament rules, the corresponding market resolves to "No".

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the tournament is canceled or no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, all markets resolve to "Other" or "No" depending on the platform's specific terminology.
  • Player Ineligibility: If a listed player is disqualified or otherwise unable to compete before the tournament concludes, that market resolves to "No".
Timing: Resolution occurs after the conclusion of the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament, no later than November 1, 2026, or immediately if the tournament is canceled or no winner is declared.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament winner is determined by the player who wins the championship. If a participant forfeits, withdraws from consideration, or takes any official action that removes them from being able to win the tournament, the market resolves to No for that participant. Only the player who completes the tournament and wins the final match can resolve the market to Yes.

Predict

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Limitless

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2026 US Open men's singles market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the chances of different players winning the tournament. It displays total volume of $16,581,253 and 24-hour volume of $641,436, letting you see where consensus lies across platforms. This view helps you spot shifts in sentiment as the event approaches.

Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines by around 1.5 points, reflecting sharper, crowd-sourced probabilities that update continuously based on new information. While sportsbooks may lag or smooth odds for commercial reasons, prediction markets let traders react instantly to player form, injuries, or weather forecasts, creating a more dynamic pricing landscape.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can diverge because user bases, liquidity pools, and trading activity vary between venues. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Additionally, each platform may have different levels of exposure to sharp traders versus retail participants, which influences how quickly new information is priced in. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? at 27.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? at 26.0%.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the tournament winner is verified against credible public sources such as official tournament announcements and reputable sports news outlets. The market settles based on who is declared the champion after the final match concludes, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Key signals that could shift this market include major player injuries, changes in tournament seeding due to ranking shifts, or unexpected wins/losses during lead-up events. Performance at warm-up tournaments, weather forecasts affecting play conditions, and even psychological factors like player confidence after high-profile matches can all cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their expectations ahead of Sep 14, 2026.