TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 3:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in the second half of a college football game, focusing exclusively on performance after halftime. Each market corresponds to a specific margin threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Stanford vs Wake Forest college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For any market where Wake Forest wins by exceeding the specified point margin in the second half, it resolves to Yes; conversely, if Stanford meets or exceeds its designated margin, that corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty introduced by the delay. The resolution hinges entirely on second-half performance, with no consideration given to the first half or overall game outcome.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to differences in the perceived probabilities of various results. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly favors one side, as that can influence trading activity in this market. Comparing the two can offer a broader understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a consensus view. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top market on Kalshi is for Stanford wins 2H by over 4.5 points, but the probabilities are constantly evolving based on trading activity. Traders are essentially betting on their predictions and influencing the price with each trade.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Stanford vs Wake Forest game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official results reported by the governing body of college football, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final result and their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Stanford or Wake Forest would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they are expected to impact the game, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could affect how traders assess the likely outcome. Public perception and media coverage can also play a role, driving increased volume and potentially altering the price of contracts in this market.