TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 6:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively one team might win over the other. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to pay out.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the Stanford vs Louisville college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For markets where Louisville wins by a specified point margin or more, the market resolves to Yes if Louisville's victory meets or exceeds that margin; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, the market where Stanford wins by over 1.5 points resolves to Yes if Stanford wins by more than 1.5 points. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially when considering the wisdom of the crowd. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market reflects the collective belief of informed traders. However, sportsbook odds are often more readily available and can offer different types of wagers. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, but as the event approaches, the prediction market often converges towards a more accurate assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different sides of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices efficiently, as they can profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the latest consensus view on the Stanford vs Louisville spread.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Stanford vs Louisville game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of college football. Any adjustments or official rulings regarding the game's score will be taken into account to ensure an accurate and fair resolution of this market. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Stanford or Louisville teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Public perception and betting trends from traditional sportsbooks may also play a role, as they can influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant news or developments related to team morale or coaching strategies could contribute to movement in this market.