TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 4:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Stanford and Louisville. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might perform in the opening quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first quarter of play in the Stanford vs Louisville college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For any market where the specified point differential is exceeded by the winning team, the market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official first-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, reflecting an equitable assessment of outcomes given the circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust prices based on their own analysis and information. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies may present opportunities for arbitrage or informed trading in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the actual point spread achieved in the first quarter of the Stanford vs Louisville game will be compared to the contract spreads offered on Kalshi. The contracts corresponding to the correct spread will pay out $100, while those representing incorrect spreads will expire worthless. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and results, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Stanford or Louisville teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's style of play, could also affect trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might lead traders to reassess their probabilities. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could also play a role in shifting the market’s perception of the likely outcome.