TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.2b

24H VOL:

$205,769,171

24H TRANSACTIONS:

950,106,883

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,078,492,000

827,238

Markets across

14,795

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

884

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Sports
Politics
Crypto
Elections
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
limitless
polymarket
p
opinion

StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$131,669,483
Volume 24h:
$10,481
63%
Liquidity:
$342,928
0.15%
Open interest:
$163,419N/A
PredictionHero
$50M 82%
polymarket
$100M 75%
polymarket
$200M 67%
predict
Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 202660708090

StandX FDV above $50M one day after launch?

82%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 82¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% | APY: 53% Low liquidity 169 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks whether StandX's token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds one day after its public launch. Markets are structured as a ladder of FDV price points ($200M to $10B) across multiple prediction platforms, all measuring the same underlying metric at the same resolution timestamp.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms (Limitless, Polymarket, Predict, Opinion) apply identical resolution criteria: FDV threshold comparison at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after launch, with consistent launch qualification requirements and deadline cutoff.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for StandX token; verification via StandX official Twitter (@StandX_Official)

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch
  • Resolution timestamp: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch date
  • YES resolution: StandX FDV greater than the specified threshold at resolution timestamp
  • NO resolution: StandX FDV equal to or less than the specified threshold at resolution timestamp
  • NO resolution if no token launch occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • Resolution source: most liquid price source available at time of measurement

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch Definition Ambiguity: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable; passive or restricted transfers do not qualify as launch
  • Liquidity Source Tie: If multiple sources have equal liquidity, resolver should select the source with highest trading volume and most recent price data
  • Deadline Non-Launch: If StandX does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to NO regardless of FDV threshold
  • FDV Calculation Method: FDV should be calculated as: current token price multiplied by total token supply (including unvested tokens)
  • Timezone Precision: All timestamps use Eastern Time (ET); resolver must account for daylight saving time transitions
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following StandX token launch; if no launch by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve NOOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project’s token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of StandX's fully diluted valuation one day post-launch, often diverging from analyst forecasts or token launch price targets. While traditional equity analysts may model comparable crypto projects or venture valuations, prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from informed participants. The current odds suggest market participants view a breakout FDV scenario as relatively unlikely compared to more modest valuation outcomes. This gap between market odds and analyst sentiment can signal either market skepticism or analyst optimism about StandX's initial reception.

On Polymarket, StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch is priced using an automated market maker model where traders buy and sell outcome shares. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The current implied probability reflects the ratio of liquidity and recent trades across all competing outcomes. As traders accumulate positions ahead of launch, the price adjusts to balance supply and demand. Larger trades move the price more sharply on lower liquidity, while sustained directional interest gradually shifts the equilibrium odds. Settlement occurs one day after the token goes live, when the actual FDV is verified.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027, which is one day after StandX's official launch. Resolution depends on verifying the token's fully diluted valuation at that specific point in time. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual FDV against the threshold specified in the market title. Once the launch date is confirmed and FDV data is available from reliable sources, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on which outcome occurred.

Key catalysts include official launch date announcements, token allocation details, and pre-launch community sentiment. Major partnerships or regulatory clarity could boost perceived value and shift odds upward. Conversely, security concerns, competitive announcements, or broader crypto market downturns could dampen enthusiasm. Venture backing announcements or prominent investor participation may signal confidence in higher valuations. Media coverage and social media momentum in the final weeks before launch typically influence trader positioning. Early exchange listings and liquidity commitments also shape expectations for day-one trading volume and price discovery.

Follow the signals, not the noise

Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.

Company

Brand Kit

API & Data Licensing

Methodology

Help Center

Disclaimer

Terms of Use

Privacy Policy

Contact

PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.2PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.