TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses different margin-based outcomes for the Stade Rennais versus Auxerre Ligue 1 soccer match. It focuses on the extent of the winning team's victory, categorizing it into specific goal-difference thresholds. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Stade Rennais or Auxerre wins the professional Ligue 1 soccer match originally scheduled for October 11, 2026. If Stade Rennais wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Stade Rennais wins by more than 1.5 goals, that corresponding market resolves to Yes. For Auxerre, winning by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals each have their own respective markets that resolve to Yes if achieved. All resolutions are determined after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with extra time and penalty phases excluded from consideration. The governing body is the Ligue 1, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with it. Trademarks and brand names remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can move the price on Kalshi to reflect their collective assessment, potentially offering different value than available elsewhere. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective beliefs of traders. The current price represents the market’s probability assessment of that outcome occurring, relative to the total possible payout.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Stade Rennais vs Auxerre match, specifically the goal difference. The platform will verify the result against trusted sports data sources to determine the winning outcome for this market. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Stade Rennais or Auxerre would likely cause significant movement, as would any changes in team form or tactical approaches. Unexpected news regarding team morale or coaching changes could also impact trader sentiment. Additionally, major weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, or even significant pre-game analysis from respected sports commentators, could all contribute to shifts in the market price as traders react to new information.