TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Lyon wins by more than 1.5 goals
- Kalshi
Lyon wins by more than 1.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 8, 2026
Time left: 05d:18h:14m
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This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Stade Brest 29 and Lyon, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. These thresholds vary depending on which team wins and by how many goals they triumph.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Stade Brest 29 or Lyon wins the match scheduled for November 8, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Stade Brest 29 wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. If Stade Brest 29 wins by more than 1.5 but not more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes, while the >2.5 goals market resolves to No. Similarly, if Lyon wins by more than 1.5 goals, that market resolves to Yes. If Lyon wins by more than 2.5 goals, that market resolves to Yes, while the >1.5 goals market resolves to No. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to No. The rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, being driven by actual traders, tends to more closely reflect the true probabilities as perceived by a diverse group of participants. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by public betting patterns and promotional offers, potentially creating differences. It's common to see prediction markets aggregate information and expert opinions more efficiently, leading to potentially more accurate forecasts than those found at sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Stade Brest vs Lyon match. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of a particular outcome. As more traders buy contracts indicating a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd and any new information that emerges. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Stade Brest vs Lyon match, as reported by official sports data providers, will determine the winning contracts. Resolution will be based on the official result of the game, and any adjustments made by the relevant sporting authority. Traders will then be paid out or have their funds returned based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual outcome of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 8, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Stade Brest or Lyon would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching changes, or even controversies surrounding the teams could all contribute to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and drive price changes in this market.