TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether one team wins by a specific number of runs or more, providing different thresholds for resolving possible outcomes.
The event evaluates various run-difference thresholds for the SSG Landers vs NC Dinos game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Four distinct markets resolve to 'Yes' based on specific run-margin conditions: NC Dinos winning by over 2.5 runs, NC Dinos winning by over 1.5 runs, SSG Landers winning by over 1.5 runs, and SSG Landers winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market independently assesses its respective condition using the final confirmed score of the game. All markets operate under the understanding that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The primary determination for each market hinges solely on the game’s official result as recognized by the league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often incorporating information not immediately available to sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical analysis and team performance, this market allows for real-time adjustments based on a broader range of factors, including news, injuries, and even subtle shifts in public opinion. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes identify undervalued or overvalued outcomes compared to traditional betting venues. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi tend to converge with sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the SSG Landers versus NC Dinos spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the price gets to 50, the more uncertain the market is about the spread. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies, creating a dynamic and informative pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the SSG Landers versus NC Dinos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual run differential between the two teams at the conclusion of the game. The market will determine whether the spread was accurately predicted by traders on Kalshi. The final result will be publicly available and used to settle all outstanding contracts.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the SSG Landers or the NC Dinos would likely cause price movement. Changes in starting pitcher assignments, weather forecasts affecting the game, or even significant team performance in preceding games could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to team morale or coaching decisions could also play a role. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact is crucial for understanding how this market might evolve before Oct 4, 2026.