TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:05 PM EST
Polymarket
This prediction market asks users to forecast which team, Sporting Kansas City or Austin FC, will win the second half of a Major League Soccer (MLS) match, or if the second half will end in a draw. The markets consider stoppage time as part of the second half. Resolution relies on official match statistics, with fallback sources if official data is unavailable.
In the upcoming MLS game between Sporting Kansas City and Austin FC, scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sporting Kansas City" if Sporting Kansas City score more goals than Austin FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Sporting Kansas City and Austin FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Austin FC" if Austin FC score more goals than Sporting Kansas City in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming MLS game between Sporting Kansas City and Austin FC, scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sporting Kansas City" if Sporting Kansas City score more goals than Austin FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Sporting Kansas City and Austin FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Austin FC" if Austin FC score more goals than Sporting Kansas City in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the incentives of the participants and the way prices are formed. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, while prediction markets are driven by individuals betting on their beliefs. This market’s odds reflect the aggregate wisdom of those beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. Furthermore, prediction markets allow for hedging and sophisticated trading strategies not typically available at sportsbooks, influencing the price discovery process.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market design. Each platform attracts a different set of traders with varying levels of expertise and risk tolerance. Polymarket currently favors Sporting Kansas City to win the second half at 45%, while Predict leans toward a draw at an unspecified percentage. These discrepancies can also arise from differing liquidity levels and the specific mechanisms each platform uses for price discovery, such as automated market makers or order books. These factors contribute to independent price signals.