TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between Sporting de Alcazar CF and Malaga, focusing solely on the result after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time. It excludes outcomes determined during extra time or penalty shootouts, emphasizing the immediate conclusion of regular match time. The resolution depends entirely on which team secures a victory or if the match ends evenly within this defined period.
The event determines the winner of a professional Copa del Rey soccer match between Sporting de Alcazar CF and Malaga, scheduled for October 27, 2026, based exclusively on the result after 90 minutes of regulation time plus any stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty shootouts. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Sporting de Alcazar CF, a win for Malaga, or a tie. If the match concludes with a victory for either team within the specified timeframe, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regulation and stoppage time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The operator emphasizes it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can trade on Kalshi to profit from the discrepancy. This dynamic can lead to prediction market odds being more accurate, or at least representing a different perspective than those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price and reduces the implied probability. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism driven entirely by supply and demand among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the regulation time moneyline – meaning the winner of the match excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The official result as declared by the governing sporting body will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in coaching staff could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks might draw attention to potential mispricings on Kalshi, prompting traders to adjust their positions and move the market.