TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 8:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming professional soccer match between Sport Recife and Sao Bernardo. It focuses on how many goals the winning team might score beyond the opponent, reflecting expectations about the competitiveness and scoring dynamics of the game.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios for the Sport Recife versus Sao Bernardo match scheduled for October 6, 2026, in the Brasileiro Serie B league. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Sport Recife wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the corresponding markets resolve to Yes. Similarly, if Sao Bernardo wins by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals, their respective markets resolve to Yes. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, noting that all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can express that view by trading in this market, potentially driving the price away from the sportsbook’s initial assessment. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s price discovery process, and currently, the 24-hour trading volume is $39,601.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Sport Recife vs Sao Bernardo match, as officially reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or account for any losses based on the final outcome of the contest. The market will close prior to the event’s completion to prevent manipulation.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or significant shifts in player form could impact the perceived probabilities of each team winning. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-game analysis from respected sports commentators could also move the market. Furthermore, large trades by individual participants or groups could create short-term price fluctuations, and general market sentiment surrounding the teams’ performance will play a role until the event concludes.