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406,065

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13
polymarket
kalshi

Will SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 13 succeed?

Volume:
$1,597,451

Super Heavy booster explodes?

 - Polymarket

Super Heavy booster explodes? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 25, 2026

Closed: Jul 25, 2:14 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Super Heavy booster explodes?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$226,822
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before August

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$171,713
N/A
N/A
$69,504
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$126,245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

August 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$132,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before September

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,715
N/A
N/A
$8,497
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Successful splash down?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$64,413
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before July 25th

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$49,498
N/A
N/A
$33,638
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before August 17th

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$36,007
N/A
N/A
$21,317
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 24

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$23,424
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 26

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.3¢
N/A
$14,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 27

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before July 26th

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,519
N/A
N/A
$7,740
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before September 17th

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,542
N/A
N/A
$3,499
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before July 17th

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$235,719
N/A
N/A
$41,231
Settled
No
polymarket

July 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before July 24th

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$103,840
N/A
N/A
$46,222
Settled
No
polymarket

July 23

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 17

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,133
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before July 18th

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,892
N/A
N/A
$6,853
Settled
No
kalshi

Before July 21st

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,796
N/A
N/A
$27,753
Settled
No
polymarket

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,401
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

July 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,524
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before July

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,273
N/A
N/A
$9,978
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Intro

This market tracks whether SpaceX's 13th integrated Starship-SuperHeavy flight test will result in the Superheavy booster exploding. The aggregated consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi stands at 98.8%, with a secondary outcome probability of 0.1% for the booster catch success. Resolution will be determined by the Official SpaceX YouTube channel, with secondary corroboration from video feeds and written reports. Watch for the launch window ending on December 31, 2026, as this is the key date that will determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define launch as successful liftoff from the pad, treat post-launch events as irrelevant to launch resolution, and use identical official SpaceX video sources for all outcome verification.Primary resolution logic: Official SpaceX YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), with secondary corroboration from video feeds and written reports

Core resolution logic:

  • Launch-by-date markets (June 30, July 15, July 31, August 31) resolve Yes if the 13th Starship successfully lifts off the launch pad before the specified deadline (11:59 PM ET), No otherwise
  • Post-launch anomalies including explosions, unplanned events, or vehicle name changes have no bearing on launch resolution
  • Booster explosion market resolves Yes if the SuperHeavy booster experiences violent destruction from fueling start through 60 minutes after landing contact; resolves No if launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • Upper stage splashdown market resolves Yes if Starship upper stage achieves controlled re-entry, remains intact during descent, and enters water without breaking apart; resolves No if launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • Chopstick catch market resolves Yes if booster is successfully captured and supported by Orbital Launch Tower chopsticks without falling or catastrophic damage; resolves No if launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Pad abort or no liftoff: If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it is not considered the 13th launch. Launch-by-date markets remain open; contingent markets (explosion, splashdown, catch) stay open until the 13th launch occurs or December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline passes.
  • Post-launch explosion or anomaly: Any explosion or anomaly occurring after liftoff does not affect launch-by-date resolution (resolves Yes if liftoff occurred before deadline). Booster explosion market specifically includes controlled splashdown events that result in destruction.
  • Vehicle name change: If SpaceX renames Starship or the vehicle, this has no bearing on market resolution. The 13th numbered test flight is the reference point.
  • December 31, 2026 deadline: If the 13th launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all contingent markets (booster explosion, splashdown, chopstick catch) resolve No.
Timing: Launch-by-date markets resolve upon confirmation of liftoff before their respective deadlines or at deadline expiration. Contingent outcome markets (explosion, splashdown, catch) resolve after the 13th launch occurs or by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on whether SpaceX successfully launches Starship flight test number 13 by specified dates across six separate markets (before July 1, July 17, August 1, August 17, September 1, and September 17, 2026). Each market independently resolves to Yes if the launch occurs before its respective deadline, as confirmed by FAA source agency data. If FAA data is delayed, resolution will be deferred until the data is updated in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these embed live trader conviction into real-time odds, often diverging from traditional analyst reports. Market prices reflect aggregate belief across thousands of participants with financial skin in the game, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on smaller expert panels and published timelines. For a complex engineering event like Starship's next test flight, markets can react faster to technical delays, regulatory hurdles, or SpaceX announcements than formal forecasts update. Comparing this market's current odds to aerospace analyst consensus can reveal where traders see hidden risk or opportunity that mainstream coverage has not yet priced in.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, use distinct market mechanics, and may interpret launch-window definitions slightly differently. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and user demographics can skew toward more conservative pricing, while Polymarket's global audience and AMM-style liquidity pools may react faster to breaking news. Subtle differences in outcome wording—such as launch-by dates or what counts as a successful test—also drive wedges between platforms. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but persistent spreads often signal genuine disagreement about event timing or criteria interpretation.

Major catalysts include FAA launch license approvals or denials, SpaceX public statements on test-flight timing, and hardware readiness updates from the company. Regulatory delays, weather patterns affecting launch windows, or competing SpaceX priorities (Falcon 9 missions, Starlink deployment) can shift odds downward. Conversely, successful completion of pre-flight tests or accelerated pad construction could boost bullish sentiment. Real-time news flow, competitor activity, and geopolitical factors affecting space operations will all ripple through this market as traders reassess launch probability.