TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether UTSA will win their college football game against South Florida by more than 6.5 points. Currently, the probability of UTSA winning by over 6.5 points on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the South Florida vs UTSA game originally scheduled for Oct 8, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep a close watch on the game itself, as the market resolves the day after the scheduled game date of October 9, 2026, to allow for official results to be reported.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the South Florida vs UTSA college football game scheduled for October 8, 2026. For markets predicting a UTSA victory, resolution occurs if UTSA wins by more than the specified point differential (ranging from 1.5 to 27.5 points). For markets predicting a South Florida victory, resolution occurs if South Florida wins by more than the specified point differential (ranging from 1.5 to 14.5 points). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Generally, prediction markets tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often providing odds that are competitive with, and sometimes more accurate than, traditional sportsbooks. However, it's important to remember that sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly bet against each other. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, information available to traders versus bookmakers, and the inherent dynamics of supply and demand within this market. It’s always wise to compare odds from various sources before making a decision.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the South Florida vs UTSA game. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand – if more people believe South Florida will cover the spread, the 'buy' price for those contracts will increase, and the 'sell' price will decrease. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective predictions of all participants, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the South Florida vs UTSA game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body for college football, and will determine which contracts pay out and which expire worthless. Traders will be able to see the confirmed result on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game and official score reporting.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any significant news regarding player injuries, coaching changes, or team performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather forecasts for the game location could also play a role, as could major shifts in public perception based on expert analysis or media coverage. Late-breaking news about team strategies or internal issues could also cause fluctuations in the market as traders adjust their predictions based on the latest information.