TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether South Alabama will win their game against Arkansas State by more than 1.5 points. Currently, the probability of South Alabama winning by over 1.5 points on Kalshi is 94.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the South Alabama vs Arkansas St. college football game, with resolution determined if South Alabama wins by more than 5.5 points as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves the day after the originally scheduled game date of Oct 8, 2026, on October 9, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the South Alabama vs Arkansas State college football game scheduled for October 8, 2026. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the updated result. If the game fails to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Each individual market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified team wins by more than the stated point differential; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The markets cover a range of point spreads for both teams, from narrow margins to larger victories.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or as the event draws closer. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into differing perceptions of the game’s likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate views risk losing money. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the aggregate intelligence of the crowd, offering a unique perspective on the likely outcome of the South Alabama vs Arkansas State game.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the South Alabama vs Arkansas State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the market is interpreting the latest information.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 9, 2026. News regarding key player injuries for either South Alabama or Arkansas State would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift the odds. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced by either team could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, any significant public information released regarding team morale or preparation could influence how this market prices the spread.