TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:40 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether South Africa will win its professional Test series cricket match against Australia. Currently, the probability of South Africa winning on Kalshi is 97.0%. The resolution source for this market is based on the outcome of the South Africa vs Australia men's professional Test series cricket match originally scheduled for Oct 27, 2026 at 4:30 AM EDT. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market will resolve based on the result of the game scheduled to conclude by the resolution date estimate of November 1, 2026.
The event resolves based on the official result of the South Africa vs Australia men's professional Test series cricket match scheduled for October 27, 2026. If South Africa wins, the 'South Africa' market resolves Yes; if Australia wins, the 'Australia' market resolves Yes; and if the match ends in a draw or tie, the 'Draw/Tie' market resolves Yes. If the match is cancelled before commencement or abandoned prior to the toss with no official result declared, all markets resolve to a fair market price. If the match is delayed beyond five days from its original start time before commencement, all markets also resolve to a fair market price. However, if the match is abandoned after the toss has occurred, all markets resolve according to the official result recorded by the governing body of the relevant competition.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it may indicate that the market believes the sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate or that there is information not yet fully incorporated into the sportsbook’s pricing. However, both aim to predict the same outcome: the result of the South Africa vs Australia match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the South Africa vs Australia match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the South Africa vs Australia match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the official result declared by the governing body of the sporting event. The platform will then verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Major upsets in related matches, or significant public endorsements of either team, could also contribute to price movements. Furthermore, large-volume trades by informed participants can sometimes signal new information or a change in sentiment, leading to rapid adjustments in the odds for the South Africa vs Australia match.