TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:10 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether South Africa will win its men’s professional Test series cricket match against Australia. Currently, Kalshi gives South Africa a 92.0% probability of winning, with a 6.0% probability assigned to a Draw/Tie. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should watch for the conclusion of the betting period on October 23, 2026, as this will be the final opportunity to adjust positions before the market closes and resolves.
The event resolves based on the official result of the South Africa vs Australia men's professional Test series cricket match scheduled for October 18, 2026. If South Africa wins, the 'South Africa' market resolves Yes; if Australia wins, the 'Australia' market resolves Yes; and if the match ends in a draw or tie, the 'Draw/Tie' market resolves Yes. If the match is cancelled before commencement or abandoned before the toss with no official result, all markets resolve to a fair market price. If the match is delayed beyond five days from its original start time before commencing, all markets also resolve to a fair market price. However, if the match is abandoned after the toss, markets resolve according to the official result declared by the governing body. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ versus the opinions of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by supply and demand – what traders are willing to pay or accept. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move in that direction. Discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders to potentially find value, but it’s important to consider the different incentives at play when comparing the two.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the South Africa vs Australia match, as declared by the governing sporting body. The contract will pay out $1.00 to the winning outcome and $0.00 to all losing outcomes. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when the market will be settled and payouts will be processed.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the South Africa vs Australia match takes place. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the playing conditions, or even pre-match commentary from analysts, could also cause price fluctuations. Major upsets in other related matches, or shifts in public perception of either team’s form, could also contribute to movement in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price changes.