TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET
Volume:
$46,234
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average. Both platforms measure price direction at the same moment but employ fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ different price sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs 60-second average), and different resolution structures (binary up/down vs 50 price-level thresholds). Markets can resolve differently despite measuring the same asset at the same moment.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as fungible. Polymarket's binary logic (close >= open) is independent of Kalshi's threshold ladder. A Binance candle that opens at $80 and closes at $81 resolves UP on Polymarket but may resolve differently on Kalshi depending on where the CF Benchmarks 60-second average lands. Cross-platform arbitrage is risky without explicit price correlation analysis.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional comparison using Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single data source: Binance official SOL/USDT pair.
- Kalshi: 50-way price level ladder using CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average. Each of 50 thresholds (from $59.9999 to $108.9999 in $1 increments) independently resolves to Yes if the average exceeds that level. All thresholds appear to resolve Yes simultaneously if price is sufficiently high; no explicit No condition stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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