TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 5PM ET
Volume:
$73,294
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down at a specific moment on February 28, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average. Both aim to capture directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources, methodologies, and measurement windows.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and resolution methodologies (binary up/down vs. 75 threshold-based conditions). The same underlying price movement may resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will settle identically. Polymarket's 1-hour window smooths volatility; Kalshi's 60-second snapshot is sensitive to micro-movements. CF Benchmarks RTI may include data from multiple venues and apply weighting that differs from Binance spot. Monitor both feeds in real-time before 5 PM ET on Feb 28, 2026. Consider the cost of basis risk if you are hedging across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if SOL/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle starting at 5 PM ET on Feb 28, 2026. Data source: Binance SOL/USDT pair, 1H timeframe. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 75 separate Yes/No conditions, each testing if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 47.9999 to 121.9999). All conditions resolve to Yes if the average is above the threshold; otherwise No. Data source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST is above [threshold] at 5 PM EST on Feb 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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