TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 5PM ET
Volume:
$68,208
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down on February 20, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average. Both platforms aim to capture directional price movement at the same moment in time, but employ fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and resolution logic (binary comparison vs. multi-threshold index levels). The same price movement at 5 PM ET on February 20, 2026 will likely resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move together. Polymarket resolves based on whether the SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close on Binance is >= the open. Kalshi resolves based on whether a 60-second CF Benchmarks average exceeds one or more of 50 price thresholds. The data feeds, time windows, and logic are fundamentally different. Treat them as separate events and monitor both sources independently.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market: UP if Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open at 5 PM ET on Feb 20, 2026. DOWN otherwise. Uses single exchange spot price, single 1-hour window, simple comparison logic. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Multi-threshold index market: YES if 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST exceeds any of 50 price levels (49.9999 to 98.9999). Uses index-based price feed, 60-second micro-window, 50 independent resolution conditions. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST is above [X] at 5 PM EST on Feb 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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