TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 1:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between SMU and Syracuse. It evaluates whether one team will dominate the other by a certain margin of points during a particular quarter, reflecting strategic performance and scoring dynamics in that timeframe.
The event determines whether SMU or Syracuse secures a victory by exceeding specified point differentials during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Multiple markets exist, each corresponding to different point thresholds (ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points) for both possible outcomes—SMU winning or Syracuse winning. All markets exclusively consider points scored in the second quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original schedule, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The markets are independent of the overall game outcome and focus solely on the second quarter's performance.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as event time approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the views of many independent traders. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes influence early trading in this market. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but they are derived through different mechanisms and may diverge based on information and market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter of the game. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe SMU will cover a certain spread, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread for the second quarter of the SMU vs Syracuse game will be used to determine which contracts payout. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will dictate the winning contracts and the distribution of funds to those who correctly predicted the spread. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence trading in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the SMU or Syracuse teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's style of play, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to reassess their positions. Public sentiment, reflected in polls or expert analyses, could also play a role, though this market tends to be driven more by informed trading activity.