TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match in Croatia's HNL league. Bettors can speculate on whether one team will secure a victory or if the game will end in a draw within regular time. The resolution depends solely on the match result after 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Slaven Belupo versus Rijeka professional Croatia HNL soccer match scheduled for October 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Slaven Belupo, a win for Rijeka, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team winning in regular time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The resolution strictly considers the result within regular time, with no account for post-match proceedings such as extra time or penalties.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when there's strong public sentiment or information asymmetry. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of probabilities than sportsbook odds, though that isn't always the case.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the price discovery process, meaning the price is constantly adjusting based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Slaven Belupo versus Rijeka football match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable or a significant shift in team performance during recent matches would likely cause movement. Major upsets in other related matches or changes in betting patterns at sportsbooks could also impact trading activity and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.