TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:58 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets determine whether SL Benfica or Guimaraes achieves a decisive victory margin over their opponent in the same scheduled match, considering only regular time plus stoppage time.
These spread markets resolve based on the outcome of the SL Benfica vs Guimaraes professional Liga Portugal soccer match scheduled for October 11, 2026, considering only the 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time added by the referee, and excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The first two markets resolve to 'Yes' if SL Benfica wins by more than 2.5 or more than 1.5 goals respectively. The latter two markets resolve to 'Yes' if Guimaraes wins by more than 1.5 or more than 2.5 goals respectively. No affiliation or endorsement by the Governing League or use of its trademarks is implied in these rules.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market relies on individuals expressing their beliefs through trading. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated an ability to be more accurate than traditional polls or even expert forecasts. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and can be influenced by various factors, including public perception and late-breaking news. Comparing the two can offer a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting an outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants trading on Kalshi regarding the spread in the Benfica vs Guimaraes match.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread result of the SL Benfica vs Guimaraes match, as reported by official sports data providers. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual result. The platform will verify the outcome against established and trusted sources to ensure an accurate and fair resolution for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in team formations, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching decisions or significant team performance in preceding matches could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could indicate a change in expectations and cause the price to move. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market's outlook.