TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 4:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the total number of goals scored in an upcoming Europa League soccer match between SL Benfica and Celtic. Bettors can speculate on whether the combined goals from both teams will exceed various thresholds. The outcome depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootout results.
The event evaluates multiple markets centered on whether the total goals scored in the SL Benfica vs Celtic Europa League match exceed specified thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5 goals). All markets resolve based on the official match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from goal counts. Each market has a distinct threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the actual goals exceed that threshold and 'No' if they do not. The markets operate independently, meaning each threshold is assessed separately. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, often differing from those initially set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides of a bet. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately forecast the actual event outcome as new information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see prediction markets converge toward the true probability as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes for the Benfica vs Celtic match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available liquidity at various price points, allowing traders to assess the ease of entering and exiting positions. Traders are effectively betting on their prediction of the total goals scored.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official total goals scored in the Benfica vs Celtic match, as reported by official sources. The final score, including any own goals or extra time goals (if applicable based on the match rules), will determine the winning contract. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total goals will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The market's outcome is determined by objective, publicly available data.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 16, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Benfica or Celtic would likely have a significant impact, as this directly affects the teams’ scoring potential. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the playing style or pitch conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any tactical announcements from the managers regarding their expected formations or strategies might influence traders’ perceptions of the likely goal tally. Unexpected pre-match news or even significant momentum shifts during the match itself could all contribute to price fluctuations.