TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 4:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether SL Benfica will win their Europa League soccer match against Celtic. Currently, the probability of SL Benfica winning on Kalshi is 98.0%. Resolution will be determined by the result of the match as defined by the official scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, according to Kalshi’s resolution source. Traders should particularly watch for the outcome of the match itself on October 15, 2026, as this is the scheduled date for the game and will determine market settlement.
The event resolves based on the result of the SL Benfica vs Celtic Europa League match scheduled for October 15, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct markets correspond to possible outcomes: SL Benfica win, Celtic win, or a tie. If the match concludes with a victory for either team within regular time, the respective market resolves to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined per the platform’s guidelines. The resolution specifically excludes extra time and penalty shootout results, focusing solely on the standing after normal playing time.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on a variety of factors, including public betting patterns and expert analysis, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of informed traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on team form, potential injuries, or even subtle strategic advantages. If you observe a significant difference between the probabilities implied by this market and those offered by sportsbooks, it could signal an opportunity for informed trading.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards another outcome, the price of that contract will increase while the others decrease. This dynamic pricing ensures the market constantly adjusts to new information and evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Benfica vs Celtic match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing football authorities. The market will determine which outcome – a Benfica win, a Celtic win, or a draw – occurred during the scheduled match. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to Oct 15, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Benfica or Celtic would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even unexpected weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant public statements from players or coaches, or even shifts in betting patterns at traditional sportsbooks, could trigger adjustments in the probabilities reflected in this market.