TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an international soccer match between Sint Maarten and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, focusing on the result after the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The contest is part of the professional Concacaf Nations League, with specific conditions governing how wins, ties, and potential cancellations affect the resolution.
The event resolves based on the official result of the Sint Maarten vs Saint Vincent and the Grenadines professional Concacaf Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Sint Maarten secures a victory within this timeframe, the 'Sint Maarten' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, a win by Saint Vincent and the Grenadines results in the 'Saint Vincent and the Grenadines' market resolving to Yes. Should the game conclude in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The resolution strictly adheres to the outcome within regular time, with no consideration given to post-match events such as extra time, penalties, or subsequent replays.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a margin for profit, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can express that view by trading in this market. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before major events or when new information emerges, but over time, the two may converge as more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure there are always bids and asks available, facilitating trading even with low volume. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the likely result of the Sint Maarten vs Saint Vincent match.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Sint Maarten vs Saint Vincent match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not. The exact payout amount is determined by the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team rosters, player injuries, or changes in coaching staff for either Sint Maarten or Saint Vincent and the Grenadines could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location could also play a role, as could any pre-match analysis from sports commentators or analysts. Major shifts in public sentiment, even those not directly related to the teams, could also impact trading volume and prices as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.