TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The Simmons Bank Championship is a prestigious golf tournament where competitors aim to claim the top position. Betting markets focus on predicting which golfer will emerge victorious after the final round. Outcomes are determined solely by the official tournament results, with specific resolution rules applying if participants withdraw before play begins.
All markets resolve based on the official winner of the Simmons Bank Championship. If the listed golfer wins the tournament, the respective market resolves to Yes; all other markets resolve to No. For any golfer who forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to the tournament’s start, Tournament Winner and End of Round Leader markets resolve to No, while Finishing Position, Make the Cut, Head-to-Head, and 3-Ball markets resolve to Fair Market Value. These secondary rules apply uniformly across all participants and market types, ensuring consistent resolution regardless of individual golfer status.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on models and internal analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their money behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the implied probabilities from both sources can reveal interesting insights into how the event is perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each golfer winning the Simmons Bank Championship. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of that outcome. As more people buy contracts for a particular golfer, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Simmons Bank Championship is verifiable from credible public reporting. The golfer who wins the tournament, as officially declared by the tournament organizers, will determine the outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on the official results published by the tournament and will be considered final once verified. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding golfer injuries, changes in form during practice rounds, or weather forecasts impacting playing conditions could all cause shifts in probabilities. Unexpected withdrawals from key contenders would also likely lead to price adjustments. Furthermore, live performance during the tournament itself – a strong first-round score, for example – would undoubtedly move the market as traders react to the unfolding events and reassess their predictions.