TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 2:03 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Shimizu and Gamba in Japan's J1 League. The result depends on the margin of victory for either team within regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Different thresholds define whether the market settles positively.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Shimizu vs Gamba Japan J1 League match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Shimizu winning by more than 2.5 goals, Shimizu winning by more than 1.5 goals, Gamba winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Gamba winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each outcome corresponds to a separate market resolving to 'Yes' if achieved; otherwise, all markets resolve to 'No'. The resolution excludes extra time and penalty phases, focusing solely on regular-time results. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or house biases. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market relies on the collective predictions of traders. Over time, discrepancies between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds can emerge as new information becomes available or as traders identify perceived mispricings. It’s common to see the market adjust more dynamically to news and analysis than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Shimizu vs Gamba match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the spread, and the market price reflects the aggregated intelligence of all traders. As more traders participate and new information arises, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Shimizu vs Gamba match as officially recorded by a trusted sports data provider. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual result. It's important to monitor news sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about any factors that could influence the final spread.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies for either Shimizu or Gamba could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators could also contribute to price movements. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in expectations and cause the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential price fluctuations.