TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:39 AM EST
Polymarket
This prediction group concerns the outcome of a Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) game between the Shenzhen Leopards and the Shanxi Loongs, scheduled for October 28th. The market resolves to the winning team, with a 50-50 split if the game is canceled and a continuation if postponed.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 7:35AM ET: If the Shenzhen Leopards win, the market will resolve to "Shenzhen Leopards". If the Shanxi Loongs win, the market will resolve to "Shanxi Loongs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 7:35AM ET: If the Shenzhen Leopards win, the market will resolve to "Shenzhen Leopards". If the Shanxi Loongs win, the market will resolve to "Shanxi Loongs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect a different kind of information than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As a result, prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate forecasters of real-world events. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and often offer different betting options. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the probabilities surrounding this event, and potentially identify discrepancies worth exploring.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to a number of factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, all of which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can vary significantly, leading to temporary imbalances. It’s also possible that different information is incorporated into the prices on each platform, or that traders have different interpretations of the available data. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Shenzhen Leopards vs. Shanxi Loongs at 97, while Predict leans toward Shenzhen Leopards vs. Shanxi Loongs at n/a.