TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:17 AM EST
Polymarket
This prediction group concerns the outcome of a single Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) game between the Shenzhen Leopards and the Beijing Royal Fighters on October 25th. The market resolves to whichever team wins the game, accounting for overtime, or splits 50-50 if the game is canceled without a reschedule, or remains open if postponed.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:35AM ET: If the Shenzhen Leopards win, the market will resolve to "Shenzhen Leopards". If the Beijing Royal Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Royal Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:35AM ET: If the Shenzhen Leopards win, the market will resolve to "Shenzhen Leopards". If the Beijing Royal Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Royal Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market is driven by individuals wagering their own capital. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and react to news more quickly than sportsbooks, potentially resulting in more accurate probabilities, though this isn’t always the case.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict on this market can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Differences in the volume of trading on each platform—Polymarket currently has a volume of $63,704—can also contribute to price variations. Furthermore, the information available to traders on each platform might differ slightly, leading to divergent assessments of the likely outcome of the Shenzhen Leopards versus Beijing Royal Fighters game.