TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 8:43 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether a total of over 9.5 games will be played in the second set of the match between Zizou Bergs and Carlos Alcaraz at the Shanghai Rolex Masters. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5”. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as the outcome will be determined by the actual number of games played in the second set during that fixture.
This market refers to the tennis match between Zizou Bergs and Carlos Alcaraz in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zizou Bergs' if Zizou Bergs advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Zizou Bergs. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven purely by participants’ beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the prediction market odds will shift accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before major events, as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more shares are traded, the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by trader activity; there are no external factors influencing the valuation. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the Alcaraz vs Bergs match.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Rolex Masters match between Zizou Bergs and Carlos Alcaraz, as reported by official tournament sources. The market will determine which player won the match, and shares will pay out accordingly based on the final result. The resolution process aims to be transparent and rely on widely accepted sources of truth.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or updates on their recent performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or even pre-match interviews where players express confidence or concerns can also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the players’ chances of winning will likely be reflected in the trading activity and, consequently, the odds for this market.