TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 5:28 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Zhizhen Zhang will advance against Tomas Machac in their scheduled match at the Shanghai Rolex Masters tennis tournament. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac”. Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as that will determine whether the match—and therefore this market—proceeds as planned.
This market refers to the tennis match between Zhizhen Zhang and Tomas Machac in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zhizhen Zhang' if Zhizhen Zhang advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Zhizhen Zhang. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant difference emerges, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling on Polymarket and a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of the same event, and discrepancies can simply reflect differing opinions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, the price of those shares increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of shares at any given time represents the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants trading on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Rolex Masters match between Zhizhen Zhang and Tomas Machac. The platform will verify the final score and declare a winner, settling the market accordingly. The outcome will be determined by the official tournament results and will be publicly available through established sports news sources.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even unexpected weather forecasts could shift trader sentiment. Strong performance by either player in preceding matches or tournaments could also impact the odds. Furthermore, significant bets placed by informed traders on Polymarket could cause noticeable price movements, reflecting new information or a change in market perception regarding the Zhang vs Machac match.