TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:25 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Rafael Jodar will advance against Daniil Medvedev in their Shanghai Rolex Masters tennis match, specifically focusing on whether Set 2 will have over or under 10.5 games. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Jodar vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5”. Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 7:00AM ET, as the outcome will depend on the games played in Set 2 during that fixture.
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges. Comparing the probabilities implied by both can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making regarding the Shanghai Masters tennis match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price fluctuates, reflecting the evolving consensus. The current price indicates what the crowd believes is the likelihood of a particular player winning the Shanghai Masters tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Masters tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev, as reported by official tournament organizers. The player who wins the match will determine the winning outcome in this market, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even pre-match interviews could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches leading up to the Shanghai Masters tennis match could also impact perceptions of player form and confidence. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either Rafael Jodar or Daniil Medvedev winning will likely cause movement in this market.