TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 5:32 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Rafael Jodar will win against Casper Ruud in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, specifically resolving to ‘Rafael Jodar’ if he advances. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Casper Ruud (+1.5). Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as the outcome will be determined by Jodar’s performance in that contest.
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Casper Ruud in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Casper Ruud. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the probability of a particular outcome. It's common to see this market converge with sportsbook odds as the event approaches, but notable differences can persist, offering potential value to informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a specific outcome—in this case, either Rafael Jodar or Casper Ruud winning the match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is influenced by new information, expert opinions, and overall market sentiment, offering a dynamic representation of expectations for the Shanghai Masters tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Rafael Jodar versus Casper Ruud match at the Shanghai Rolex Masters, as reported by official tournament sources. The player who wins the match will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when and how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or strategic adjustments could also play a role. Furthermore, expert analysis and public opinion, especially if it deviates from current expectations, might trigger price movements in this market as traders react to new information and reassess the probabilities of each player winning.