TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 3:16 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Aziz Dougaz in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Aziz Dougaz. This market will resolve to 'Aziz Dougaz' if Aziz Dougaz advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Aziz Dougaz in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Aziz Dougaz. This market will resolve to 'Aziz Dougaz' if Aziz Dougaz advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and their own risk assessment, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional polls or analyst predictions, as they incentivize informed participation. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of information and market efficiency. It’s useful to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Sonego vs Dougaz match, and the price of these shares reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people bet on a particular outcome, its price will increase. This creates a market-driven assessment of the likelihood of each possible result, and provides a transparent view of collective expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Sonego vs Dougaz match as reported by the tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against established sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. The process is designed to be objective and based on publicly available information.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, potential injuries to either Sonego or Dougaz, or changes in playing conditions could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches leading up to this one might also affect perceptions of player momentum. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants can cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring tennis news and following market activity on Polymarket will be key to understanding potential catalysts that could impact the outcome of this market.