TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:45 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Adam Walton and Rigele Te in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adam Walton' if Adam Walton advances against Rigele Te. This market will resolve to 'Rigele Te' if Rigele Te advances against Adam Walton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Adam Walton and Rigele Te in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adam Walton' if Adam Walton advances against Rigele Te. This market will resolve to 'Rigele Te' if Rigele Te advances against Adam Walton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and risk assessments, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially early in the market's life, as prediction markets can incorporate information and analysis that sportsbooks may not immediately consider. Examining both can provide a more well-rounded view of potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the combined judgment of all participants, and the closer the event gets, the more the price is expected to converge towards the true probability of the outcome. Volume and open interest also play a role in price discovery.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Walton vs Te match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect which player advanced to the next stage of the Shanghai Rolex Masters qualification tournament. Resolution will be based on the official tournament results as published by the governing body of professional tennis, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player form, potential injuries to either Adam Walton or Rigele Te, or changes in playing conditions could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches within the qualification draw might also impact perceived probabilities. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket by informed traders could create short-term price movements, and overall market volume could indicate increased or decreased confidence in a particular outcome.