TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 8:08 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Novak Djokovic will advance against Hubert Hurkacz in their Shanghai Rolex Masters match, specifically focusing on whether Set 2 will have over or under 8.5 games. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Djokovic vs. Hurkacz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5”. Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep a close watch on the match itself, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 6:00AM ET, as the outcome will depend on the actual gameplay and final set scores.
This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Hubert Hurkacz in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Hubert Hurkacz. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Novak Djokovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, and may be influenced by promotional considerations or limitations in their modeling. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Polymarket, tends to offer probabilities that are more closely aligned with the true likelihood of each outcome, as perceived by the crowd. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing information, risk tolerance, and market participation levels. It’s useful to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, its price increases, reflecting a growing consensus that it is more likely to occur. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and trader sentiment regarding the Djokovic vs Hurkacz match.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Djokovic vs Hurkacz match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official result declared by tournament organizers. The winner of the match will determine the winning outcome in this market. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verifiable information to ensure a fair and accurate outcome for all participants.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries to either Novak Djokovic or Hubert Hurkacz would likely cause a shift in probabilities. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they affect the playing surface, could also be a catalyst. Unexpected announcements about playing conditions or even pre-match interviews revealing strategic insights could also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of each player's chances of winning will impact trading activity and, consequently, the odds on Polymarket.