TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:03 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Adrian Mannarino in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Karen Khachanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Adrian Mannarino in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Karen Khachanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives from individuals actively trading on Polymarket. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments, access to unique information, or simply variations in opinion. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or shifts in sentiment than sportsbooks, offering a potentially more dynamic pricing mechanism.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the market price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived chance of it happening, and vice versa. This dynamic process creates a constantly updating forecast for the Khachanov vs Mannarino match.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Khachanov vs Mannarino match is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official result declared by tournament organizers. The market will determine which player won the match, based on the official score reported by the tournament. The platform will then settle the market, distributing payouts to traders who correctly predicted the outcome. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even pre-match interviews revealing strategic insights could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or a change in the players’ recent form, could also lead to significant price adjustments. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a shift in expectations, causing the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.