TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 7:11 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Daniil Medvedev will advance against Dalibor Svrcina in their scheduled match at the Shanghai Rolex Masters. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Daniil Medvedev winning the match. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as this is when the outcome will become clear and the market will resolve.
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Dalibor Svrcina in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Dalibor Svrcina. This market will resolve to 'Dalibor Svrcina' if Dalibor Svrcina advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Polymarket, aims to reflect the true probabilities as perceived by the crowd. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts as new information and opinions emerge, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the match outcome. It’s important to compare both to inform your own predictions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome – either Daniil Medvedev winning or Dalibor Svrcina winning. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring, allowing traders to express and aggregate their collective forecast. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information available.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Rolex Masters match between Daniil Medvedev and Dalibor Svrcina, as reported by official tournament sources. The market will determine which player won the match, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when and how this market will be finalized.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries to either Daniil Medvedev or Dalibor Svrcina would likely cause a shift in the odds. Updates on their recent performance, changes in playing conditions, or even pre-match interviews revealing strategic insights could also move the market. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the Shanghai Masters, affecting player morale or fatigue, could also play a role. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of each player’s chances of winning will be reflected in the trading activity and price movements of this market.