TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:51 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Cameron Norrie will win by a margin of at least three games against Dalibor Svrcina in their Shanghai Rolex Masters match. Currently, Polymarket gives a 10.0% probability to Game Spread: Cameron Norrie (-2.5) vs Dalibor Svrcina (+2.5). The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of October 7, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as that is when the outcome of this market will become clear.
This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Dalibor Svrcina in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Dalibor Svrcina. This market will resolve to 'Dalibor Svrcina' if Dalibor Svrcina advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like marketing promotions or biases, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If there's a significant difference, it could indicate that prediction market participants believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It's worth comparing the implied probabilities from both sources to form your own informed opinion on the Norrie vs Svrcina match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular player will win, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Rolex Masters match between Cameron Norrie and Dalibor Svrcina, as declared by the tournament organizers. The market will determine which player won the match, and shares will pay out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the winner. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to the Norrie vs Svrcina match could also impact confidence in either player. Furthermore, any analysis from tennis experts or commentators offering a strong opinion on the likely winner could also move this market, as traders react to new information and insights.