TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 2:48 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Arthur Gea will advance against Jaime Faria in their scheduled match at the Shanghai Rolex Masters tennis tournament. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Arthur Gea advancing. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as the outcome will be determined by whether Arthur Gea advances against Jaime Faria, with resolution expected by October 14, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Jaime Faria in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Jaime Faria. This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if Jaime Faria advances against Arthur Gea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like marketing promotions or biases, while this market relies on individuals directly wagering on the outcome. If there's a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular result. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms and may appeal to different types of bettors.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous process where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market is driven entirely by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the players' form and potential performance in the Shanghai Masters tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Masters tennis match between Arthur Gea and Jaime Faria as reported by official tournament sources. The market will determine which player won the match, and shares will pay out accordingly based on the final score and official results.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match schedules could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Strong performances by either player in preceding matches, or even pre-match analysis from tennis experts, could also shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions during the Shanghai Masters tournament could also play a role, as could any significant upsets in other matches that might affect player morale or focus.