TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:09 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Botic van de Zandschulp will be completed in the Shanghai Rolex Masters. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp”. Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match schedule for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET, as this is when the match is originally slated to begin and will be a key indicator of potential resolution.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Botic van de Zandschulp in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Botic van de Zandschulp. This market will resolve to 'Botic van de Zandschulp' if Botic van de Zandschulp advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the match, the odds on Polymarket will adjust accordingly, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the players' chances. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a large amount of trading occurs.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether each player will win. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders buy contracts for a particular player, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in their victory. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is driven entirely by supply and demand, and is a direct representation of what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a specific outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Rolex Masters match between Arthur Fils and Botic van de Zandschulp, as declared by the tournament organizers. The player who wins the match will be considered the winning outcome for this market. Any potential delays or postponements of the match will also be reflected in the resolution timeline.
Several factors could influence the trading activity and price movement in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in earlier rounds of the tournament, or even comments from analysts and sports commentators, could also impact the odds. A strong showing by either player in their previous match would likely increase confidence and drive up the price of their respective contract on Polymarket.