TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 5:33 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Alex de Minaur will win against Karen Khachanov by at least two games in their Shanghai Rolex Masters match, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Karen Khachanov (+1.5). The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match start time of October 13, 2026, as this will initiate the betting period and determine when the outcome will be settled.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market represents the aggregated predictions of individuals trading on Polymarket. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive view of the potential outcomes and the probabilities assigned to them by different groups.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and provide a real-time assessment of the potential result of the de Minaur vs Khachanov match.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Shanghai Rolex Masters match between Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov as reported by official tournament sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner and settle the market accordingly. Traders should monitor official tournament updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected results in other matches leading up to the de Minaur vs Khachanov match could also impact perceptions of player form and confidence. Furthermore, major shifts in public sentiment or analysis from tennis experts could drive trading volume and price changes on Polymarket as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.