TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 7:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an AFC Champions League soccer match between Shanghai Port and Daejeon Citizen, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the opponent at the end of regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Shanghai Port vs Daejeon Citizen AFC Champions League match scheduled for October 13, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are possible, each tied to a specific margin of victory: Shanghai Port winning by more than 2.5 goals, Shanghai Port winning by more than 1.5 goals, Daejeon Citizen winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Daejeon Citizen winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from consideration. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information and insights different from those captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and to balance action, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could indicate that prediction market traders have access to or place higher value on information not yet fully incorporated by sportsbooks. It’s also common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe one outcome is more likely, the price of that outcome’s contract increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants regarding the final result of the K League 1 match.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Shanghai Port versus Daejeon Citizen match. The platform will then verify the outcome against publicly available data sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect spread will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Shanghai Port or Daejeon Citizen would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also play a role. Monitoring these signals and their potential impact on the match outcome is key to understanding potential shifts in this market.