TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 11:20 AM EST
Polymarket
This event group concerns the outcome of a single Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) game between the Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin and the Beijing Royal Fighters. The markets resolve to whichever team wins the game, with a 50-50 split if the game is canceled and no make-up game is scheduled.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for November 2 at 6:35AM ET: If the Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin win, the market will resolve to "Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin". If the Beijing Royal Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Royal Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
The event involves two parallel markets resolving based on the result of the same basketball game between Beijing Royal Fighters and Shandong Kirin, scheduled for November 2, 2026. Each market corresponds to one team’s victory: one resolves to Yes if Shandong Kirin wins, and the other if Beijing Royal Fighters wins. Both markets share identical secondary rules: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market stays open and resolves based on the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within that 48-hour window, both markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment regardless of the team-focused outcome. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for November 2 at 6:35AM ET: If the Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin win, the market will resolve to "Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin". If the Beijing Royal Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Royal Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit, while prediction markets incentivize participants to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. However, both aim to accurately represent the probability of an event occurring, and comparing them can provide valuable insights into the perceived likelihood of different results in this market.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific factors. Polymarket might attract a different type of trader than Predict, leading to differing opinions reflected in the prices. Additionally, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery. These differences are normal and contribute to a more robust and informative market signal for the Chinese basketball game.